Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- QB edge to LA: Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.145 vs Tyler Shough (NO) -0.471 EPA/dropback (NO starting Tyler Shough in place of Spencer Rattler)
- NO offense: -0.109 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
- LA offense: +0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
- LA on 7 more days rest than NO
- LA defense: -0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 9
NO
LA
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 06:22 TD LA (6:22) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – LA 6
- Q2 11:31 TD LA (11:31) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – LA 13
- Q2 07:54 FG NO (7:54) 19-B.Grupe 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. NO 3 – LA 13
- Q2 06:32 TD LA (6:32) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 12-P.Nacua for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 3 – LA 19
- Q2 00:13 TD NO (:13) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 9 – LA 20
- Q3 05:17 TD LA (5:17) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 10 – LA 26
- Q4 12:43 TD LA (12:43) 23-K.Williams left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 10 – LA 33
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 61Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EPp(convert) 69%
(13:10) 32-K.Kroeger punts 49 yards to LA 12, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-X.Smith to LA 12 for no gain (27-I.Yiadom).
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Q1 NO 4th & 16 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(5:04) 32-K.Kroeger punts 40 yards to LA 31, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-X.Smith to LA 42 for 11 yards (49-Z.Wood; 27-I.Yiadom).
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Q1 LA 4th & 6 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(4:05) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to NO 4, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.
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Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 87Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EPp(convert) 72%
(2:29) 32-K.Kroeger punts 49 yards to LA 38, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.
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Q2 NO 4th & 6 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 92%
(7:54) 19-B.Grupe 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
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Q2 NO 4th & 7 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(5:35) 32-K.Kroeger punts 46 yards to LA 16, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.
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Q2 LA 4th & 15 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 92%
(:58) 16-J.Karty 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
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Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 7Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 98%
(6:00) 12-P.Nacua left end to NO 4 for 3 yards (56-D.Davis). LA-12-P.Nacua was injured during the play.
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Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%
(12:43) 23-K.Williams left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 NO 4th & 2 at the 7Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%
(9:47) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill right tackle to LA 8 for -1 yards (91-K.Turner). NO-88-J.Stoll was injured during the play.
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Q4 LA 4th & 8 at the 90Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(7:22) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to NO 40, Center-47-A.Ward. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 49 for 9 yards (87-D.Allen; 19-X.Smith).
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Q4 NO 4th & 4 at the 24Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 89%
(5:40) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 1-E.Forbes at LA 13. 1-E.Forbes to LA 20 for 7 yards (22-R.Shaheed).