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New Orleans Saints

1-8 HC Kellen Moore
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Los Angeles Rams

6-2 HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2025-11-02 · 16:05 ET SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 14.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

NO
14.0%
LA
86.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to LA: Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.145 vs Tyler Shough (NO) -0.471 EPA/dropback (NO starting Tyler Shough in place of Spencer Rattler)
  • NO offense: -0.109 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • LA offense: +0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • LA defense: -0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • LA on 7 more days rest than NO
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NO defense: +0.032 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NO 18 11–25
–
LA 30 23–37
Projected margin: LA by 12 Projected total: 48

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 9

NO

Alvin Kamara RB Questionable Ankle
John Ridgeway DT Questionable Illness
Rashid Shaheed WR Questionable Hip
Alontae Taylor CB Questionable Shoulder

LA

Darious Williams CB Doubtful Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 10
–
LA 34

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:22 TD LA (6:22) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – LA 6
  • Q2 11:31 TD LA (11:31) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – LA 13
  • Q2 07:54 FG NO (7:54) 19-B.Grupe 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. NO 3 – LA 13
  • Q2 06:32 TD LA (6:32) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 12-P.Nacua for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 3 – LA 19
  • Q2 00:13 TD NO (:13) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 9 – LA 20
  • Q3 05:17 TD LA (5:17) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 10 – LA 26
  • Q4 12:43 TD LA (12:43) 23-K.Williams left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 10 – LA 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (13:10) 32-K.Kroeger punts 49 yards to LA 12, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-X.Smith to LA 12 for no gain (27-I.Yiadom).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NO 4th & 16 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (5:04) 32-K.Kroeger punts 40 yards to LA 31, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-X.Smith to LA 42 for 11 yards (49-Z.Wood; 27-I.Yiadom).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LA 4th & 6 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (4:05) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to NO 4, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 87
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (2:29) 32-K.Kroeger punts 49 yards to LA 38, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NO 4th & 6 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 92%

    (7:54) 19-B.Grupe 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NO 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:35) 32-K.Kroeger punts 46 yards to LA 16, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LA 4th & 15 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 92%

    (:58) 16-J.Karty 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 98%

    (6:00) 12-P.Nacua left end to NO 4 for 3 yards (56-D.Davis). LA-12-P.Nacua was injured during the play.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%

    (12:43) 23-K.Williams left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NO 4th & 2 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (9:47) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill right tackle to LA 8 for -1 yards (91-K.Turner). NO-88-J.Stoll was injured during the play.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LA 4th & 8 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:22) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to NO 40, Center-47-A.Ward. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 49 for 9 yards (87-D.Allen; 19-X.Smith).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NO 4th & 4 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 89%

    (5:40) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 1-E.Forbes at LA 13. 1-E.Forbes to LA 20 for 7 yards (22-R.Shaheed).

    See the full breakdown →