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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 15 at the 21

Los Angeles Rams 20 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(:58) 16-J.Karty 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.60 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 31, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model