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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 7

Los Angeles Rams 20 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(6:00) 12-P.Nacua left end to NO 4 for 3 yards (56-D.Davis). LA-12-P.Nacua was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +3.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.56 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 7, worth +0.47 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.40 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model