4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 16 at the 71

New Orleans Saints 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(5:04) 32-K.Kroeger punts 40 yards to LA 31, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-X.Smith to LA 42 for 11 yards (49-Z.Wood; 27-I.Yiadom).

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.01 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 71, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 29, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model