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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 54

Los Angeles Rams 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(4:05) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to NO 4, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.08 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 54, worth -2.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 16, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model