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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 87

New Orleans Saints 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(2:29) 32-K.Kroeger punts 49 yards to LA 38, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.10 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 87, worth -5.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.62 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 45, worth -2.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP