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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 76

Washington Commanders 0 – Seattle Seahawks 21

What Actually Happened

(6:57) 10-T.Way punts 63 yards to SEA 13, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-51-A.Kaho.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.68 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 76, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 34, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model