Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- SEA offense: +0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
- WAS defense: +0.092 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
- SEA on 7 more days rest than WAS
- WAS offense: +0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 9
SEA
WAS
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 03:09 TD SEA (3:09) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 15-T.Horton for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on WAS-2-M.Lattimore, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. SEA 6 – WAS 0
- Q2 08:57 TD SEA (8:57) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 15-T.Horton for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: WAS-20-Q.Martin has returned to the game. SEA 13 – WAS 0
- Q2 08:46 TD SEA (8:46) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 18-E.Arroyo for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 20 – WAS 0
- Q2 04:44 TD SEA (4:44) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 82-C.White for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: WAS-23-T.Amos has returned to the game. SEA 27 – WAS 0
- Q2 00:56 TD WAS (:56) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 28 – WAS 6
- Q2 00:03 FG SEA (:03) 5-J.Myers 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 31 – WAS 7
- Q3 01:55 TD SEA (1:55) Direct snap to 88-A.Barner. 88-A.Barner right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 37 – WAS 7
- Q4 07:17 TD WAS (7:17) (Shotgun) 36-C.Rodriguez up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 38 – WAS 13
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 WAS 4th & 13 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(11:18) 10-T.Way punts 52 yards to SEA 10, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 15-T.Horton.
-
Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 58Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(15:00) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 87-J.Bates to SEA 48 for 10 yards (13-E.Jones).
-
Q2 WAS 4th & 6 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(6:57) 10-T.Way punts 63 yards to SEA 13, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-51-A.Kaho.
-
Q3 SEA 4th & 1 at the 72Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.57 EPp(convert) 75%
(13:30) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to WAS 18, Center-41-C.Stoll. 83-J.Lane to WAS 21 for 3 yards (42-D.Thomas; 44-C.Surratt).
-
Q3 WAS 4th & 13 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 30%
(10:56) 10-T.Way punts 40 yards to SEA 12, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 15-T.Horton.
-
Q3 WAS 4th & 15 at the 46Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.81 EPp(convert) 28% p(FG) 44%
(5:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles right guard to SEA 39 for 7 yards (99-L.Williams).
-
Q4 WAS 4th & 14 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 34%
(15:00) 10-T.Way punts 36 yards to SEA 14, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 15-T.Horton.
-
Q4 SEA 4th & 2 at the 78Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EPp(convert) 66%
(12:38) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to WAS 35, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 83-J.Lane.
-
Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 63 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EPp(convert) 74%
(4:50) 4-M.Dickson punts 58 yards to WAS 5, Center-41-C.Stoll. 83-J.Lane to WAS 17 for 12 yards (32-Je.Reed; 41-C.Stoll).