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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 72

Seattle Seahawks 31 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(13:30) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to WAS 18, Center-41-C.Stoll. 83-J.Lane to WAS 21 for 3 yards (42-D.Thomas; 44-C.Surratt).

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.32 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 72, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.68 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 30, worth -1.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.57 EP