4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 13 at the 62

Washington Commanders 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(11:18) 10-T.Way punts 52 yards to SEA 10, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 15-T.Horton.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.11 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 62, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 21, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model