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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 14 at the 50

Washington Commanders 7 – Seattle Seahawks 38

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 10-T.Way punts 36 yards to SEA 14, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 15-T.Horton.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.60 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 50, worth -3.11 EP
KICK -1.55 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -3.11 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model