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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 50

New York Giants 7 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(9:36) 12-J.Gillan punts 32 yards to SF 18, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 9-S.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.18 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -1.07 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model