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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
Sunday 2025-11-02 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

SF
49.2%
NYG
50.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG defense: +0.121 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • SF offense: +0.017 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 23
–
NYG 25
Projected margin: NYG by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

SF

Jake Brendel C Out Hamstring
Bryce Huff DE Out Hamstring
Yetur Gross-Matos DE Out Knee
Ricky Pearsall WR Out Knee
Jordan Elliott DT Questionable Ankle
Ben Bartch G Questionable Ankle
Sam Okuayinonu DE Questionable Ankle
Spencer Burford T Questionable Knee
Brock Purdy QB Questionable Toe
Dee Winters LB Questionable Knee

NYG

Paulson Adebo CB Out Knee
Chauncey Golston DE Out Neck
Cordale Flott CB Out Concussion
Art Green CB Out Hamstring
Jermaine Eluemunor T Doubtful Pectoral
Daniel Bellinger TE Doubtful Neck
Jevon Holland S Questionable Knee
Rico Payton CB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 34
–
NYG 24

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:58 TD NYG (10:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short right to 84-T.Johnson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – NYG 6
  • Q1 04:21 TD SF (4:21) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – NYG 7
  • Q2 13:14 TD SF (13:14) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 15-J.Jennings for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 13 – NYG 7
  • Q2 02:00 FG SF (2:00) 18-E.Pineiro 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. SF 17 – NYG 7
  • Q3 09:59 FG SF (9:59) 18-E.Pineiro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. SF 20 – NYG 7
  • Q3 06:45 FG NYG (6:45) 9-G.Gano 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan. SF 20 – NYG 10
  • Q4 11:41 TD SF (11:41) 3-B.Robinson right guard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 26 – NYG 10
  • Q4 07:57 TD NYG (7:57) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 27 – NYG 16
  • Q4 04:16 TD SF (4:16) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 33 – NYG 17
  • Q4 01:27 TD NYG (1:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass deep right to 80-G.Olszewski for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 34 – NYG 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (9:01) 10-M.Jones up the middle to SF 43 for 2 yards (53-D.Muasau).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 2 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (2:21) 12-J.Gillan punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 32%

    (9:36) 12-J.Gillan punts 32 yards to SF 18, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 9-S.Moore.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 48%

    (5:50) 7-T.Morstead punts 37 yards to NYG 7, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 7 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (3:42) 12-J.Gillan punts 45 yards to SF 45, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 9-S.Moore pushed ob at NYG 41 for 14 yards (33-D.Flannigan-Fowles).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 68%

    (2:00) 18-E.Pineiro 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 7 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (:49) 12-J.Gillan punts 52 yards to SF 17, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 9-S.Moore to SF 28 for 11 yards (46-Z.Barnes).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 10 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 85%

    (:20) 9-G.Gano 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 13 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (9:59) 18-E.Pineiro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 99%

    (6:45) 9-G.Gano 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 5 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (5:05) 7-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to NYG 21, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by SF-33-S.Neal.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 8 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:43) 12-J.Gillan punts 44 yards to SF 15, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 9-S.Moore to SF 24 for 9 yards (31-N.Jones; 24-D.Belton).