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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 44

San Francisco 49ers 14 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(5:50) 7-T.Morstead punts 37 yards to NYG 7, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.15 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -0.82 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP