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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 36

San Francisco 49ers 14 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 18-E.Pineiro 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.53 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 36, worth -1.78 EP
KICK +0.21 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP