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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 13 at the 14

San Francisco 49ers 17 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(9:59) 18-E.Pineiro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.39 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 14, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 24, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model