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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 3

New York Giants 7 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(6:45) 9-G.Gano 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +3.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.77 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.47 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP