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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 71

San Francisco 49ers 20 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(5:05) 7-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to NYG 21, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by SF-33-S.Neal.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.44 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 71, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 29, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model