Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 59

New York Giants 10 – San Francisco 49ers 20

(1:43) 12-J.Gillan punts 44 yards to SF 15, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 9-S.Moore to SF 24 for 9 yards (31-N.Jones; 24-D.Belton).

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.80 EP
61% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model