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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 1

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Seattle Seahawks 35

What Actually Happened

(4:21) 68-K.Beachum and 71-J.Gaines reported in as eligible. 20-Z.Knight right tackle to SEA 1 for no gain (39-T.Okada).

The Three Options

GO +4.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.63 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 1, worth +0.97 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.39 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model