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Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
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Seattle Seahawks

HC Mike Macdonald
Sunday 2025-11-09 · 16:05 Lumen Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

ARI
36.2%
SEA
63.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA offense: +0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • ARI offense: +0.051 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • QB edge to SEA: Sam Darnold (SEA) +0.099 vs Jacoby Brissett (ARI) -0.027 EPA/dropback
  • SEA defense: -0.044 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 23
–
SEA 26
Projected margin: SEA by 3 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

ARI

Mack Wilson LB Out Ribs
BJ Ojulari LB Out Knee
Max Melton CB Out Concussion
Will Johnson CB Out Back
Will Hernandez G Questionable Knee
Xavier Weaver WR Questionable Ankle
Kitan Crawford S Questionable Hamstring

SEA

Jarran Reed DT Out Wrist
Dareke Young WR Out Quadricep
Josh Jobe CB Out Concussion
Jake Bobo WR Out Calf
Christian Haynes G Out Pectoral
Ernest Jones LB Doubtful Knee
Tory Horton WR Doubtful Groin
Cooper Kupp WR Questionable Hamstring
AJ Barner TE Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 22
–
SEA 44

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:01 TD SEA (11:01) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – SEA 6
  • Q1 09:32 TD SEA (9:32) 68-K.Beachum reported in as eligible. 7-J.Brissett sacked at ARI 32 for -11 yards (48-T.Knight). FUMBLES (48-T.Knight) [48-T.Knight], RECOVERED by SEA-0-D.Lawrence at ARI 34. 0-D.Lawrence for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. ARI 0 – SEA 13
  • Q1 01:28 TD SEA (1:28) (Shotgun) 36-G.Holani right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – SEA 20
  • Q2 14:15 TD SEA (14:15) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at ARI 29 for -12 yards (48-T.Knight). FUMBLES (48-T.Knight) [48-T.Knight], RECOVERED by SEA-0-D.Lawrence at ARI 22. 0-D.Lawrence for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. ARI 0 – SEA 27
  • Q2 08:38 TD SEA (8:38) 74-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 26-Z.Charbonnet up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – SEA 34
  • Q2 02:54 TD ARI (2:54) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 4-G.Dortch. 4-G.Dortch left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – SEA 35
  • Q2 01:42 FG SEA (1:42) 5-J.Myers 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. ARI 7 – SEA 38
  • Q3 08:47 TD ARI (8:47) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-T.McBride for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 13 – SEA 38
  • Q4 11:57 FG SEA (11:57) 5-J.Myers 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. ARI 15 – SEA 41
  • Q4 09:53 TD ARI (9:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 18-M.Harrison for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 21 – SEA 41
  • Q4 05:34 FG SEA (5:34) 5-J.Myers 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. ARI 22 – SEA 44

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (6:21) 39-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to SEA 19, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 3 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (12:24) 39-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to SEA 24, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%

    (4:21) 68-K.Beachum and 71-J.Gaines reported in as eligible. 20-Z.Knight right tackle to SEA 1 for no gain (39-T.Okada).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 9 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 83%

    (1:42) 5-J.Myers 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 11 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 32%

    (13:03) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride to SEA 38 for 12 yards (8-C.Bryant; 21-D.Witherspoon).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 99%

    (9:54) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 20-Z.Knight [7-U.Nwosu].

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 6 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 95%

    (8:47) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-T.McBride for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 5 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (4:37) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 18-M.Harrison (28-N.Pritchett).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 6 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 96%

    (11:57) 5-J.Myers 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 95%

    (5:34) 5-J.Myers 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 5 at the 75 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (4:09) 39-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to SEA 30, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.