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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 28

Seattle Seahawks 35 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(1:42) 5-J.Myers 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.71 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 28, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 38, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model