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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 2

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Seattle Seahawks 38

What Actually Happened

(9:54) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 20-Z.Knight [7-U.Nwosu].

The Three Options

GO +3.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.69 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 2, worth +0.61 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model