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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 15

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Seattle Seahawks 38

What Actually Happened

(8:47) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-T.McBride for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.20 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 15, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model