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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 15

Seattle Seahawks 41 – Arizona Cardinals 22

What Actually Happened

(5:34) 5-J.Myers 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.94 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 15, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP