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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 58

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(6:21) 39-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to SEA 19, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.90 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 58, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 18, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP