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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 35

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 12-M.Badgley 53 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.19 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 35, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 45, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP