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Atlanta Falcons

HC Raheem Morris
@
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Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
Sunday 2025-11-09 · 09:30 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

ATL
36.8%
IND
63.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: +0.228 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • ATL offense: -0.051 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Daniel Jones (IND): +0.125 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

ATL 20
–
IND 27
Projected margin: IND by 7 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

ATL

Leonard Floyd LB Out Hamstring
Storm Norton T Out Foot
Matthew Bergeron G Out Ankle
Mike Hughes CB Questionable Neck
Chris Lindstrom G Questionable Foot
LaCale London DT Questionable Shoulder

IND

DeForest Buckner DT Out Neck
Samson Ebukam DE Out Knee
Tyquan Lewis DE Out Groin
Anthony Gould WR Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 25
–
IND 31

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:40 TD IND (8:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – IND 6
  • Q1 06:10 TD ATL (6:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – IND 6
  • Q1 05:27 TD IND (5:27) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep middle to 14-A.Pierce for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 7 – IND 12
  • Q2 03:30 TD ATL (3:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep right to 5-D.London for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 13 – IND 13
  • Q3 12:30 FG ATL (12:30) 45-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 17 – IND 13
  • Q4 09:04 FG IND (9:04) 12-M.Badgley 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. ATL 17 – IND 16
  • Q4 06:16 TD IND (6:16) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 17 – IND 22
  • Q4 01:48 TD ATL (1:48) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 23 – IND 22
  • Q4 00:29 FG IND (:29) 12-M.Badgley 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. ATL 25 – IND 25
  • Q5 03:36 TD IND (3:36) 28-J.Taylor right guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 25 – IND 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 2 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 86%

    (11:01) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 2-J.Downs (20-D.Alford).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 9 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 50%

    (2:52) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to IND 2, Center-49-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-4-K.Hodge.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 6 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 73%

    (10:46) 12-M.Badgley 53 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 9 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:03) 13-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to IND 10, Center-49-L.McCullough. 2-J.Downs to IND 28 for 18 yards (84-F.Franks). PENALTY on IND-16-A.Dulin, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at IND 13.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 6 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (7:02) 8-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to ATL 45, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 14-J.Agnew. Penalty on ATL, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 5 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 88%

    (12:30) 45-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 8 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (9:47) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to IND 13, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 2-J.Downs.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 93%

    (3:29) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left guard to ATL 14 for 5 yards (17-A.Ebiketie; 55-K.Elliss).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 98%

    (:52) 28-J.Taylor left end to ATL 7 for -2 yards (40-J.Bertrand).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 10 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (14:42) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to IND 29, Center-49-L.McCullough. 2-J.Downs to ATL 47 for 24 yards (84-F.Franks).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 12 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 95%

    (9:04) 12-M.Badgley 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (7:02) 13-B.Pinion punts 50 yards to IND 9, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 2-J.Downs.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 2 at the 40 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 62%

    (1:17) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 84-T.Warren ran ob at ATL 30 for 10 yards (31-X.Watts).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 6 at the 26 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 87%

    (:29) 12-M.Badgley 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.