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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 25

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(12:30) 45-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.54 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 35, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model