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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 27

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(11:01) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 2-J.Downs (20-D.Alford).

The Three Options

GO +2.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.58 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 27, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 37, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model