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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 19

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(3:29) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left guard to ATL 14 for 5 yards (17-A.Ebiketie; 55-K.Elliss).

The Three Options

GO +3.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.91 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 19, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 29, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model