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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 26

Indianapolis Colts 22 – Atlanta Falcons 25

What Actually Happened

(:29) 12-M.Badgley 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +2.45 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +2.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.81 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 36, worth -0.25 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model