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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 67

Washington Commanders 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 10-T.Way punts 50 yards to DET 17, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-K.Raymond to DET 22 for 5 yards (51-A.Kaho).

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.52 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 67, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 25, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP