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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
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Washington Commanders

HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2025-11-09 · 16:25 FedExField, Landover US 🌧 Rain Spread -8.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

DET
63.6%
WAS
36.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.101 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.163 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to DET: Marcus Mariota (WAS) -0.025 vs Jared Goff (DET) +0.220 EPA/dropback (WAS starting Marcus Mariota in place of Jayden Daniels)

Predicted Final Score

DET 26
–
WAS 20
Projected margin: DET by 6 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

DET

Pat O'Connor DE Out Knee
Malcolm Rodriguez LB Out Knee
Kerby Joseph S Out Knee
Joshua Paschal DE Out Back
Jacob Saylors RB Out Back
Miles Frazier G Out Knee
Taylor Decker T Questionable Shoulder
Dan Skipper T Questionable Back
Craig Reynolds RB Questionable Hamstring
Daniel Thomas S Questionable Forearm
Grant Stuard LB Questionable Foot

WAS

Terry McLaurin WR Out Quadricep
Jayden Daniels QB Out Elbow
Eddie Goldman DT Questionable Concussion
Quan Martin S Questionable Hamstring
Tyler Owens S Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 44
–
WAS 22

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:29 TD DET (8:29) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 0-J.Gibbs for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – WAS 0
  • Q1 05:46 FG WAS (5:46) 16-M.Gay 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. DET 7 – WAS 3
  • Q1 01:58 TD DET (1:58) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – WAS 3
  • Q2 09:51 TD DET (9:51) 0-J.Gibbs right end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS-4-F.Luvu was injured during the play. WAS-23-T.Amos was injured during the play. PENALTY on WAS-94-D.Payne, Disqualification, 1 yard, enforced between downs. DET 20 – WAS 3
  • Q2 03:41 TD WAS (3:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 36-C.Rodriguez up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 22 – WAS 9
  • Q2 00:14 FG DET (:14) 39-J.Bates 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. PENALTY on WAS-20-Q.Martin, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. DET 25 – WAS 10
  • Q3 12:11 TD DET (12:11) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 1-J.Williams for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 31 – WAS 10
  • Q3 07:09 TD WAS (7:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 1-D.Samuel for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 32 – WAS 16
  • Q3 02:33 FG DET (2:33) 39-J.Bates 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 35 – WAS 16
  • Q4 12:58 TD DET (12:58) (Shotgun) 0-J.Gibbs right end for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 41 – WAS 16
  • Q4 07:01 TD WAS (7:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 82-B.Sinnott for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 41 – WAS 22
  • Q4 04:38 FG DET (4:38) 39-J.Bates 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 44 – WAS 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 3 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (13:37) 10-T.Way punts 50 yards to DET 17, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-K.Raymond to DET 22 for 5 yards (51-A.Kaho).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 7 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 85%

    (5:46) 16-M.Gay 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 14
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 95%

    (5:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to DET 6 for 8 yards (29-A.Maddox).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73% p(FG) 52%

    (2:00) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta pushed ob at WAS 27 for 14 yards (4-F.Luvu) [98-S.Day].

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 18
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 93%

    (:59) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 11-K.Raymond to WAS 8 for 10 yards (20-Q.Martin; 6-N.Igbinoghene).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (:14) 39-J.Bates 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. PENALTY on WAS-20-Q.Martin, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 3 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (7:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 1-D.Samuel for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 8 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

    (2:33) 39-J.Bates 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 3 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (1:03) 10-T.Way punts 56 yards to DET 16, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-K.Raymond to DET 16 for no gain (18-T.Owens).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 5 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 47%

    (10:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 1-D.Samuel pushed ob at DET 24 for 19 yards (27-A.Maulet). Detroit challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

  • Q4 DET 4th & 9 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 78%

    (4:38) 39-J.Bates 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 7 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (2:15) 10-T.Way punts 47 yards to DET 22, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 19-D.Lovett.