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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 14

Washington Commanders 3 – Detroit Lions 22

What Actually Happened

(5:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to DET 6 for 8 yards (29-A.Maddox).

The Three Options

GO +3.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.07 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model