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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 41

Detroit Lions 22 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta pushed ob at WAS 27 for 14 yards (4-F.Luvu) [98-S.Day].

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.20 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 41, worth -1.99 EP
KICK -0.42 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model