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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 4

Detroit Lions 22 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(:14) 39-J.Bates 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. PENALTY on WAS-20-Q.Martin, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +3.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.69 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 4, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +2.69 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.73 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.07 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP