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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 4

Washington Commanders 10 – Detroit Lions 32

What Actually Happened

(7:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 1-D.Samuel for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.52 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 4, worth +0.34 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model