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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 43

Washington Commanders 16 – Detroit Lions 41

What Actually Happened

(10:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 1-D.Samuel pushed ob at DET 24 for 19 yards (27-A.Maulet). Detroit challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.25 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 43, worth -1.87 EP
KICK -0.50 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model