Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 69

Washington Commanders 22 – Detroit Lions 44

(2:15) 10-T.Way punts 47 yards to DET 22, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 19-D.Lovett.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.36 EP
58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 69, worth -3.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model