Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 13 at the 62

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Houston Texans 0

(13:44) 9-L.Cooke punts 53 yards to HOU 9, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 14-J.Noel to HOU 17 for 8 yards (56-Y.Abdullah).

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.55 EP
70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 62, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model