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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Liam Coen
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
Sunday 2025-11-09 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.5 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

JAX
44.3%
HOU
55.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU defense: -0.130 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to JAX: Davis Mills (HOU) -0.104 vs Trevor Lawrence (JAX) -0.027 EPA/dropback (HOU starting Davis Mills in place of C.J. Stroud)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

JAX 23
–
HOU 24
Projected margin: HOU by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

JAX

Jourdan Lewis CB Out Neck
Ezra Cleveland G Out Knee
Hunter Long TE Out Hip
Brian Thomas Jr. WR Out Ankle

HOU

Ka'imi Fairbairn K Out Quadricep
Tytus Howard T Out Concussion
Jakob Johnson FB Out Hamstring
Jalen Pitre S Out Concussion
Christian Harris LB Out Shin
Ed Ingram G Out Knee
C.J. Stroud QB Out Concussion
Harrison Bryant TE Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 29
–
HOU 36

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:08 FG JAX (11:08) 39-C.Little 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 3 – HOU 0
  • Q1 08:22 TD JAX (8:22) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 11-P.Washington for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 9 – HOU 0
  • Q2 12:01 TD JAX (12:01) 6-T.Townsend punts 68 yards to JAX 27, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 11-P.Washington for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 16 – HOU 0
  • Q2 08:08 FG HOU (8:08) 42-M.Wright 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. JAX 17 – HOU 3
  • Q2 04:07 FG JAX (4:07) 39-C.Little 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 20 – HOU 3
  • Q2 01:23 TD HOU (1:23) 27-W.Marks left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 20 – HOU 9
  • Q3 10:20 FG JAX (10:20) 39-C.Little 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 23 – HOU 10
  • Q3 01:37 TD JAX (1:37) (Shotgun) 55-C.Edoga reported in as eligible. 1-T.Etienne right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 29 – HOU 10
  • Q4 12:21 TD HOU (12:21) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 81-J.Higgins for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 29 – HOU 16
  • Q4 07:36 TD HOU (7:36) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 86-D.Schultz for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 29 – HOU 24
  • Q4 00:37 TD HOU (:37) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills scrambles left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 29 – HOU 30
  • Q4 00:07 TD HOU (:07) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 30 for -5 yards (51-W.Anderson). FUMBLES (51-W.Anderson) [51-W.Anderson], RECOVERED by HOU-90-S.Rankins at JAX 32. 90-S.Rankins for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 29 – HOU 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 2 at the 14
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 96%

    (11:08) 39-C.Little 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 20 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 35%

    (2:18) 6-T.Townsend punts 40 yards to JAX 11, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 11-P.Washington to JAX 28 for 17 yards (45-E.Speed).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 13 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:44) 9-L.Cooke punts 53 yards to HOU 9, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 14-J.Noel to HOU 17 for 8 yards (56-Y.Abdullah).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (8:08) 42-M.Wright 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 5 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 75%

    (4:07) 39-C.Little 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 4 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 96%

    (10:20) 39-C.Little 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 5 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 57%

    (7:29) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short middle to 12-N.Collins (22-J.Jones).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 2 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 95%

    (13:02) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 14-J.Noel ran ob at JAX 12 for 5 yards.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 14 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:14) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to HOU 49, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-47-D.Gardeck.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 39%

    (6:16) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to HOU 7, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.