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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 4

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(8:08) 42-M.Wright 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.63 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 4, worth +0.23 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP