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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 15

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(10:20) 39-C.Little 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.00 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 15, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 25, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP