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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 42

Houston Texans 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 23

What Actually Happened

(7:29) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short middle to 12-N.Collins (22-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.66 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model