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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 14

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:08) 39-C.Little 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +2.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.93 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 14, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.23 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 24, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP