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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 85

Los Angeles Rams 21 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:57) 42-E.Evans punts 48 yards to SF 37, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 9-S.Moore to LA 36 for 27 yards (56-S.Dolac).

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +1.01 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 85, worth -5.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.47 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 43, worth -2.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP