Win Probability
Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- LA offense: +0.145 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- SF defense: +0.091 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
- LA defense: -0.113 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- Matthew Stafford (LA): +0.185 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- SF offense: +0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 10
LA
SF
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:18 TD LA (10:18) 23-K.Williams left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – SF 0
- Q1 05:41 TD LA (5:41) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 13 – SF 0
- Q2 13:48 TD LA (13:48) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 87-D.Allen for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 20 – SF 0
- Q2 03:19 TD SF (3:19) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 15-J.Jennings for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 21 – SF 6
- Q3 09:37 TD SF (9:37) 3-B.Robinson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 21 – SF 13
- Q3 02:44 TD LA (2:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 27 – SF 14
- Q4 12:36 TD SF (12:36) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 89-L.Farrell for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 28 – SF 20
- Q4 10:07 TD LA (10:07) 23-K.Williams left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 34 – SF 20
- Q4 05:17 TD LA (5:17) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 84-C.Parkinson for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN [53-D.Winters]. LA 41 – SF 20
- Q4 03:05 TD SF (3:05) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 42 – SF 26
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 SF 4th & 2 at the 57Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EPp(convert) 60%
(9:03) 7-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to LA 9, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-X.Smith to LA 14 for 5 yards (33-S.Neal).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 11Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 97%
(8:45) 23-C.McCaffrey left end to LA 11 for no gain (0-B.Young).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LA 4th & 6 at the 85Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EPp(convert) 50%
(6:57) 42-E.Evans punts 48 yards to SF 37, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 9-S.Moore to LA 36 for 27 yards (56-S.Dolac).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SF 4th & 2 at the 17Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55% p(FG) 94%
(3:46) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 85-G.Kittle to LA 6 for 11 yards (3-K.Curl). Penalty on LA-3-K.Curl, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 41Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.67 EPp(convert) 36% p(FG) 57%
(1:15) 42-E.Evans punts 25 yards to SF 16, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SF 4th & 7 at the 47Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 42%
(:19) 7-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to LA 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by SF-33-S.Neal.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LA 4th & 3 at the 28Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54% p(FG) 84%
(6:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua to SF 24 for 4 yards (0-R.Green).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 59Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(8:36) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right intended for 23-C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 1-E.Forbes at SF 43. 1-E.Forbes to SF 38 for 5 yards (85-G.Kittle).
See the full breakdown →
