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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 17

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 21

What Actually Happened

(3:46) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 85-G.Kittle to LA 6 for 11 yards (3-K.Curl). Penalty on LA-3-K.Curl, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.57 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 17, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.87 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 27, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.97 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model