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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 41

Los Angeles Rams 21 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 42-E.Evans punts 25 yards to SF 16, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.40 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.67 EP